Is Volvo’s EV Plan Change EV Pessimism or Tech Adoption Realism?

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When I first saw news that Volvo was pushing back its plan to transition 100% to full electric vehicles (BEVs), I thought something along the lines of, “Ugh, another automaker is using some lame excuses to water down and delay its EV plans.” And maybe that is what it is. Maybe Volvo Cars is just chickening out on the most aggressive EV transition plan from a major legacy automaker. A headline I drafted and kept open for a few days was, “Is The Auto Industry An Immensely ‘Monkey See, Monkey Do’ Industry?” Sometimes it seems like automakers are scared to make any notable changes, but then as soon as someone else does, they have to quickly follow in copycat style. Generally, automakers seem to lack strong leaders.

Again, despite leading the industry in its previous plan to sell only 100% electric vehicles in 2030, perhaps Volvo Cars saw the EV pullback from Ford, GM, and others and decided it should temper its plans for the time being. Though, maybe it was something else. Before I come back to that latter option, though, let’s look at the company’s announcement.

“Volvo Cars has adjusted its core business ambitions for the coming years, reflecting the company’s relentless focus on value creation while remaining pragmatic amidst fluid market conditions. […]

“The company now aims for 50–60 per cent of its global sales by 2025 to consist of electrified cars, so both plug-in hybrid and fully electric models.

“By 2030, it expects electrified cars to represent between 90-100 per cent of global sales volumes. The remaining 10 per cent will allow for a limited number of mild hybrid models to be sold, if needed.”

There are no excuses here about EV sales not growing as fast as they’d hoped. There’s no trash talk about the EV revolution. There’s no implication that consumers just aren’t ready for EVs. What there is is an acknowledgement that the last small percentage of buyers can be true laggards when it comes to adopting new tech. That’s the technical term.

It’s really hard to pull in that last phase of buyers. We’re seeing that in the real world in Norway right now. It’s just how things happen. That doesn’t mean that Volvo Cars has to serve those laggards. And I’m not convinced it’s the best business strategy. But I actually don’t think it’s that a big deal that Volvo Cars is changing its plans from reaching 100% BEVs by 2030 to reaching 90–100% by then. However, the good news is the company still seems highly committed to going fast — faster than others for sure — in the move to 100% electricity.

“With five fully electric cars (EVs) already on the market and another five models in development, full electrification remains a key pillar of Volvo Cars’ product strategy. Its long-term aim remains to become a fully electric car company, and it also aims to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.”

Volvo Cars also announced the other day that “All future electric Volvo cars will originate from one single technology stack.” The company calls this a “game changing approach.” We’ll see what this means in the future, but I tend to think it will create more efficiency and allow the company to create new, compelling models over time. “This new approach will define the company’s future by channeling all our engineering efforts into one direction: making cars that get better with time. […]

“This approach makes sure that our cars truly get better with time, as all our engineering work will focus on improving and enhancing the one tech stack. It means that our work on the EX90 will directly benefit the ES90, and that the work done for ES90 will carry on — both into the development of EX60 coming after it, as well as improving the EX90 already in the hands of our customers, and so on.“

Overall, it seems to me that Volvo Cars is not taking a cynical path backward, and is more so just becoming realistic on how difficult it is to get past the last few percent of tech adoption laggards, and that it can still offer some vehicles for those people. I disagree with the change of plans, since I think plenty of others can serve as the laggards while Volvo Cars leads the cause. But it is what it is, and life will go on.

Focusing on today, rather than 5+ years form now, the first Volvo EX90 buyers are starting to receive their new electric SUVs now. “The fully electric Volvo EX90 is ready and on the road: the first batch of our flagship SUV is being shipped to our retailers in the United States and Europe right now, and the first customers will get their cars before the end of this month. We will ramp up deliveries, including to more markets between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025,” the company writes.

“The EX90 is Volvo Cars’ new flagship and sets new standards for our company in safety, sustainability and human-centric technology that makes people’s lives easier and more enjoyable.” If you want the best Volvo on the market, that’s now the Ex90. Look out for one at your nearest Volvo dealer.

“Based on this trip [from Charleston, South Carolina, to California], I can confidently say that the EX90 is the best car we have ever made,” says Volvo Cars CEO Jim Rowan. “After driving it for 950 kilometres through three states in the US in various driving conditions and road surfaces, I only have positive memories. The charging, the handling, the ride comfort, the silence of the cabin and the epic sound system, the reliability, the tech and the feel of the UI — I’ve never driven a Volvo car like it. The EX90 is the start of a new era for Volvo Cars, and it begins now.”

“The EX90 is a car of many firsts. It’s the first Volvo car to be equipped with a lidar, and the first with a core computing system. It’s also the first Volvo car designed to deliver bi-directional charging, allowing customers to contribute to a more balanced grid and more renewable energy use in society. And it’s the world’s first car to offer the Abbey Road Studios mode, which comes with the optional Bowers & Wilkins top-level audio system.” It’s an appealing EV. I assume it will be many buyers’ first EV, and will maybe also be many buyers’ first Volvo.

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