The Solar Empire Strikes Back!

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The mood at the annual US Renewable Energy Market conference this month was somber. Investors, analysts, and builders were in agreement that solar is poised for a period of consolidation in which smaller developers that can’t attract capital are forced to restructure and sell off projects, according to a report by Bloomberg.

The industry has been sucker punched by the failed US administration, which is ripping up incentives for renewable energy while it shovels tens of billions of new benefits toward a fossil fuel industry that spent nearly a half billion dollars to get the people it prefers elected.

“We took a big hit over the summer,” Abby Ross Hopper, CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), said at this year’s conference. “For many people in our industry, it did real, lasting damage.” Nevertheless, renewable energy industry leaders insisted that power market dynamics remain on their side amid insatiable demand for electricity to operate big data centers for artificial intelligence.

Why? Because solar is cheap and fast to build. If you have a need for an affordable new supply of electricity now, not 5 to 10 years from now, solar is the only game in town. Batteries are proving capable of mitigating the intermittent supply issues the administration always harps on when criticizing solar. In addition, the industry is continuing to relocate more of its supply chain and manufacturing capability to the US.

Bill McKibben Talks China & Solar

Bill McKibben says not to count solar in the US out just yet. In his latest blog post, the tireless renewable energy advocate compares the US and China and finds a clear winner. He cites a report out this week from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins which begins by saying, “A rapid acceleration in overseas investment by Chinese green technology manufacturers is reshaping the global clean-tech landscape. Since 2022 alone, investments have surged past $220 billion, spanning sectors such as batteries, solar, wind, new energy vehicles, and green hydrogen. These investments now reach 54 countries across every major region.

“The database catalogs 461 green technology manufacturing projects announced between 2011 and the first half of 2025. The 11 low carbon technology types in the database are: batteries, battery materials, charging infrastructure, electric buses, electric motorcycles, green hydrogen, new energy vehicles, NEV parts, solar, storage, and wind. Projects are mapped by year, country, clean technology type, company, investment scale, production capacity, and project status.”

This is an enormous undertaking, and McKibben highlights one portion of the report, which says, “Chinese firms have pledged at least $227 billion across green manufacturing projects. A high-end estimate approaches $250 billion. This surge of overseas green manufacturing investment is unprecedented. It now surpasses the $200 billion — in current 2024 dollars — invested by the US over four years of the Marshall Plan (emphasis added), at a time of similar American dominance of manufacturing in key industries.”

Bigger Than The Marshall Plan

More than the Marshall Plan? Holy heck, that is an amazing statistic. Bloomberg contributor David Fickling wrote this week, “This can be seen as the second stage of the China-led global energy transition. The first, which is still only a few years old, came from exports of finished products — solar panels, EVs, and batteries.

“Thanks to that trade, about two thirds of emerging markets now have a larger share of solar power in their grids than the roughly 9% in the US, according to a separate study this week from pro-transition think tank Ember. One in four are electrifying their entire economies more rapidly.

“EVs are being adopted in Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates at a pace to match or even exceed developed markets. The US is increasingly resembling a steampunk relic still dependent on 19th century furnace and turbine technology to fuel its dreams of artificial intelligence. (emphasis added)” That last sentence should shock the conscience of every American.

Cutting Demand For Fossil Fuels

While Chris Wright, the fracking buffoon tycoon who now heads the US Energy Department, is traipsing Europe trying to browbeat nations into buying more climate killing LNG from the US, the rest of the world is laughing at Uncle Sam and its refusal to recognize the clean energy revolution that is happening right under its nose. Fickling continues:

“This commerce is already affecting demand for fossil fuels. China’s solar exports last year alone were sufficient to cut long-run global carbon emissions by 4 billion metric tons, equivalent to about 40 days of emissions. Pakistan, which has for years treated gas generation as the backbone of its power network, has been asking suppliers to defer shipments of liquefied natural gas after a surge of solar imports suppressed grid demand. Saudi Arabia is facing one of the fastest declines in petroleum usage anywhere as photovoltaic farms replace fuel oil generators.

“These exports have raised hackles and trade restrictions, however, due to their sheer scale. What’s different about the second stage of this transition is that foreign direct investment is building physical factories, ports and facilities that will generate jobs and investments for decades to come, cementing host countries’ commitment to clean technology. Such greenfield spending is like planting a seed: You don’t see its full impact until years later.”

In other words, by the time the US twigs to the fact that it has been playing a losing hand, it will be too late to do anything about it and America won’t be great, it will be irrelevant.

The Real Existential Threat

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is travelling with Chris Wright to drum up interest in US-supplied LNG. He and Wright both sing from the same song book, telling anyone that will listen that climate change is no big deal. Burgum said this week, “We need to worry about the humans that are on the planet today. The real existential threat right now is not one degree of climate change.”

That remark totally flabbergasted Bill McKibben, who said: “I think that explains the problem with America in a single sentence. We only care about now — the president has an attention span of three minutes, and corporate executives can’t see past the next quarter. Whereas the Chinese are clearly thinking many decades into the future, which they plan to own.”

McKibben asks why any nation would throw its lot in with the United States, which has revealed itself to be an unreliable business and political partner, when it can own a bunch of Chinese clean energy tech that gets paid for once and supplies carbon-free electricity for decades?

Africa Poised To Leapfrog Over Fossil Fuels

He points out that in advance of climate talks scheduled for later this year, African nations are indicating they have had enough of Uncle Sam’s broken promises, prevarications, and greed. Instead, they are demanding climate investments — which is precisely what China is offering. Those investments by China will rapidly transform Africa, while reducing US influence throughout the continent.

A new report by Business Green puts the annual savings for a renewable energy planet at $1 trillion a year — “just by saving on the cost of buying fuel when the sun will deliver it for free. That’s good news for almost everyone except for those people who own oil wells and coal mines. Sadly, for the moment they also own our government,” McKibben says.

In the unkindest cut of all, he writes that his travels throughout America lately have convinced him “the ultimate goal of the Trump administration is seemingly to turn us into the colonial Williamsburg of internal combustion. Right now, Beijing is offering cheap, clean power, employment, trade, and a route to prosperity. Washington is offering tariffs, policy chaos, White nationalist memes, and South Korean workers in shackles after a raid on an EV battery factory. This is no way to win the grand strategic contest of the 21st century.”

One vision will prevail. At the moment, the US, burdened by the hatred inherent in MAGA idiocy ideology, seems intent on being one of history’s biggest losers and doing everything in its power to make that dystopian vision a reality.

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