GSK, Pfizer sales of RSV shots slow as vaccination rates ebb

Dive Brief:

• Sales of both GSK’s and Pfizer’s vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus dropped significantly in the last three months of 2024, compared the same period one year before.
• In a earnings report Tuesday, Pfizer said sales of its vaccine Abrysvo fell 62% year over year in the fourth quarter. The company attributed the drop mainly to “a significant reduction in vaccination rates in the U.S.” among older adults eligible for the shot after U.S. guidelines were narrowed last summer.
• GSK reported a similar state of affairs Wednesday. Sales of its RSV vaccine Arexvy declined 69% year over year due to lower demand “related to a more limited recommendation … for individuals aged 60 to 74,” as well “channel inventory consumption.”

Dive Insight:

GSK has been the dominant player in the RSV vaccine market since Arexvy first gained approval in 2023, although Pfizer has made inroads into its market share. While initial launches for both companies’ products were strong, sales have since been crimped by the changed U.S. guidelines.

Last year, an advisory panel to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that adults aged 60 to 74 years who are at high risk of severe RSV disease receive a shot, narrowing the prior guidance of “shared clinical decision-making” for all adults over 60 years. The committee still advised all adults 75 years or older get vaccinated for RSV.

The drugmakers have hinted at the guidance’s impact in prior earnings disclosure, so the slowed fourth quarter sales are not entirely a surprise. In January, analysts from Jefferies highlighted in a client note how vaccination rates for RSV remained low, even as rates for COVID-19 and flu climbed.

Both GSK and Pfizer have been able to secure expanded approvals for their shots, but uptake in those groups may depend on revised recommendations. The Food and Drug Administration cleared GSK’s shot for adults aged 50 to 59 years who are at increased risk of disease, while Pfizer received an OK for its vaccine in adults aged 18 to 59 years who are at similar risk.

Abrysvo is also approved for maternal immunization, which is meant to pass on temporary protection to newborns. Uptake in that indication offset some of the fourth quarter sales decline due to “strong demand” in the setting, according to Pfizer.

The CDC hasn’t yet issued guidance on whether adults who already received either shot will need another dose later on to maintain protection from RSV. In October, Jefferies analyst Peter Welford told clients the probability of a two-year vaccination schedule for Arexvy was “low.”

Most recently, the FDA added warnings to Arexvy’s and Abrysvo’s labeling for an increased risk of a rare neurological disorder known as Guillain-Barré syndrome.

More broadly, GSK said Wednesday it will be “increasing and prioritizing R&D investment” in respiratory medicines, among other categories. It predicts low single digit declines in revenue from its vaccine unit this year, but overall expects its business to grow 3% to 5%.

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