Global Installed Solar Capacity To Blow Past 2 Terawatts, USA Or Not
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Fish or cut bait. That’s the message to the incoming US government from the international trade organization Global Solar Council. They calculate that the world has just hit the 2-terawatt milestone for installed solar capacity, an impressive increase of exponential proportions. In its latest report, the Solar Council declares that solar is becoming the “backbone of the global energy system” and they are collaborating with other renewable stakeholders to keep pumping up the growth profile, regardless of US energy policy over the next four years.
Exponential Growth In Global Installed Solar Capacity
The Global Solar Council notes that the 2-terawatt milestone was achieved “against the backdrop of a Donald Trump presidency.” However, the President-elect will not take office until January 21 of 2025. In the meantime, in the coming days the Biden administration will show up at COP29 with some interesting things to say about the rapid growth of installed solar capacity in the US and around the world.
The 2-terawatt milestone for installed solar capacity is significant because, according to the Solar Council’s math, in 2022 the number stood at just 1 terawatt. That’s an additional terawatt in just two years, the organization emphasizes.
“Notably, 2 TW of solar is equivalent to the total installed electricity capacity of India, the USA and UK combined and could power an estimated one billion homes, based on a global average household energy consumption of 3,500 kWh per year and a 20% capacity factor,” the Solar Council points out.
What Will It Take For Installed Solar Capacity To Blow Past 2 Terawatts?
To put the 2-terawatt milestone into even more perspective, consider that the installed solar capacity of the globe stood at zero in 1954, when Bell Labs in New Jersey, USA, presented the first practical solar cell to the world. It took a long slog of 68 years to reach the 1-terawatt mark for installed solar capacity in 2022. Following that up with another terawatt in just two years seems almost magical.
That’s nice, but the CEO of Global Solar Council, Sonia Dunlop, advises that the two-year timeline is actually not magical enough when the fate of the planet is at stake. Back at COP28 in 2022, the Solar Council joined with other renewable energy stakeholders to set the pace of installation at 1 terrawatt per year, each year, including wind, geothermal, hydropower, energy storage, and green hydrogen as well as solar.
That may seem like a stretch, but to the extent that installed solar capacity depends on manufacturing capacity, the solar industry is already there. The Solar Council estimates that global PV manufacturing capacity has already hit the 1.1 terawatt mark, leaving some wiggle room to blow past the yearly 1 terawatt goal.
Installed Solar Capacity Still Has A Chance To Grow Quickly, US Or Not
One thing holding up the works is money. While installed solar capacity has the potential to pull its weight in terms of manufacturing output, the sticky question of affordability will not get unstuck unless the cost of installing a PV array comes down.
“To get there we need to unlock financing and bring down the cost of capital for solar projects, particularly in the Global South. If the cost of capital is now at 15%, we need to bring it down to 5% or less. This is what we will be working on at COP29 Baku,” Dunlop emphasizes.
Actually, the Solar Council has a jump start on the financing question. Plans are already in the works to launch a new organization called the International Solar Finance Group at COP29. The Finance Group is billed as the first ever organization to enable the PV industry to communicate seamlessly with stakeholders in the global financial community.
If all goes according to plan, that’s not talk. The Solar Council aims to create a platform that will “bridge the financial gap between ambition and deployment and to ensure that the world remains on track to meet its climate and sustainable development commitments.” The plan focuses on private investors and development banks. That could make a significant difference in nations where energy policy has not aligned with the urgency of decarbonization.
Keep an eye on November 15, when the new Solar Finance Group will present its agenda at COP 29.
All Hands On Deck For Global Decarbonization
The focus on installed solar capacity suggests a rivalry with other renewable energy stakeholders. That may be so in circumstances where suitable land for development is scarce, but on a big-picture basis the opportunities for combining resources are growing.
Energy storage, of course, enables developers to reap the full benefit of wind and solar resources. Hybrid wind and solar power plants are another example of inter-energy collaboration. Another is the deployment of floating solar panels on hydropower reservoirs. In addition, green hydrogen stakeholders can take advantage of opportunities for remote or off-grid wind and solar capacity as well as hydropower and geothermal energy.
The emerging tidal energy and wave energy industries are opening up new opportunities for co-location and cooperation. The new space solar field is also poised to leap from the pages of fantasy into real-world feasibility.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see the Global Solar Council, Global Wind Energy Council, International Hydropower Association, Green Hydrogen Organisation, Long Duration Energy Storage Council, and International Geothermal Association unite to establish a new platform for mutual cooperation called the Global Renewables Alliance.
The Alliance aims to “speak with a unified voice on accelerating the energy transition.” They have not let the grass grow under their feet. At its launch during COP28 in 2022, the Alliance is credited with pushing for a goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Adding some heft to the endeavor is a partnership with IRENA (the International Renewable Energy Agency), an intergovernmental organization composed of United Nations member states.
Installed Solar Capacity To Everyone Else: Hold My Beer
As for the future pace of installed solar capacity, breaking up financial bottlenecks and collaboration with other renewable energy stakeholders are two significant parts of the picture, but they are not the only ones.
The 70-year stretch of growth for installed solar capacity was marked by significant technology improvements that cut costs, improved efficiency, and broadened the range of applications. Much of the attention has focused on incremental improvements to conventional silicon solar cells, but that is just the tip of the solar iceberg.
Another burst of innovation is emerging in the form of thin film solar cells and new low-cost solar materials. The mutually beneficial combination of photovoltaics and agriculture is another fast-growing trend to watch. Hold on to your hats…
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Photo (cropped): The installed solar capacity of the global PV industry is poised for another round of exponential growth, with or without an assist from US energy policy (courtesy of US Department of Energy).
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