GSK cuts vaccine forecasts, while predicting faster overall growth

Dive Brief:

• GSK on Wednesday lowered its forecast for vaccine sales this year, citing inventory changes and shifting retail prioritization in the U.S. for its shingles shot Shingrix.
• The British pharmaceutical company now expect sales from its vaccines division to increase by low to mid-single digit percentages, down from the high single digit to low double-digit growth it predicted in May.
• Shingrix, now one of GSK’s top products, earned 832 million pounds, or about $1.1 billion, in the second quarter, down from the first three months of the year but up year to date. Sales of Arexvy, the company’s new vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus, totaled 62 million pounds as demand eased along expected seasonal patterns.

Dive Insight:

Shingrix and Arexvy are two of GSK’s highest-profile products. Both are expected to propel growth, so the company’s downgraded forecast for its vaccine division counterbalanced what was otherwise a “beat and raise” quarter.

Overall, GSK reported sales of 7.9 billion pounds and raised its guidance for the year to growth between 7% and 9%, up from a prior range of 5% to 7%. The company also bumped up sales estimates for its specialty medicine division, which includes lucrative drugs for HIV.

GSK shares fell in trading on both London and New York stock exchanges on the second quarter numbers.

For Shingrix, GSK reported that growth in Europe and other international markets was offset by a quarterly decline in the U.S., where the company faces challenges convincing harder-to-reach adults to get vaccinated. GSK estimates 37% of the over 120 million U.S. adults recommended for Shingrix have been vaccinated.

GSK expects Shingrix sales will eventually climb to more than $4 billion annually, driven by its introduction in countries other than the U.S.

Arexvy is newer and has started strong, winning two-thirds share of the market over Pfizer’s competing RSV vaccine Abrysvo. RSV infections in the U.S. and Europe occur most frequently in the fall and winter, so sales during the second quarter were expected to decline.

While sales will likely pick back up in the second half of the year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently adjusted its recommendations to focus more strongly on adults aged 75 years or older, who are at higher risk of RSV-related disease. GSK has been working to broaden use of its shot in younger adults aged 50 to 59 years and, for that group, the CDC has not yet issued guidance.

GSK will also have a new competitor in Moderna’s Mresvia, which was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

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