Price analysis 11/6: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON
Bitcoin’s (BTC) marginal rise of about 1.5% last week suggests that traders are cautious at higher levels but they are not rushing to the exit. The bears have been in hibernation for the past few days but if the rally fails to resume, sellers may try to make a comeback.
However, in an uptrend, dips are usually viewed as an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate. The positive sentiment among traders can be gauged by the increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges which reached 61,000 Bitcoin, a strong improvement over the year-to-date low of nearly 43,000 Bitcoin, according to CryptoSlate analyst Van Straten.
A large part of the accumulation is taking place in Bitcoin in the hopes that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will eventually approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The enthusiasm of the traders increased further on the news that the Hong Kong government may consider proposals for a spot Bitcoin ETF. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on X (formerly Twitter) that the competition between the United States and China is good for Bitcoin.
Are Bitcoin and altcoins ready to extend their up-move or is it time for a short-term correction? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been on a tear for the past few days. The bulls pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (4,275) on Nov. 2 and followed it up a break above the 50-day simple moving average (4,346) on Nov. 3.
The relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive territory and the 20-day EMA has started to turn up. This indicates that the downtrend may be over but it does not guarantee the start of a new uptrend. The bears are expected to fiercely defend the downtrend line.
In the same way, the buyers are unlikely to give up their advantage without a fight. They are likely to buy the dips to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound off this level will increase the possibility of a break above the downtrend line. If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) plunged below the moving averages on Nov. 3, indicating the start of a deeper correction.
The first support on the downside is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 104.38. If the price rebounds off this level, the index could reach the 20-day EMA. Buyers will have to pierce this resistance to set up a retest of 107.35.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below 104.38, it will signal that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That could open the gates for a further decline to the 50% retracement level of 103.46.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has been gradually rising inside the ascending channel pattern. This suggests that the bulls have the edge but the momentum is slowing down.
The RSI remains inside the overbought territory, indicating that the BTC/USDT pair may extend its consolidation or enter a corrective phase in the next few days. If the price skids below the channel, it may tempt short-term traders to book profits. There is strong support at the 20-day EMA ($33,238) but if this level gives way, the pair may plummet to $31,000.
Contrarily, if the price turns up and breaks above the channel, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The pair may then soar to the next major obstacle at $40,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) broke above the nearby resistance of $1,885 on Nov. 5, indicating the start of the next leg of the upward journey toward $2,000.
The bears are expected to defend the zone between $2,000 to $2,200 with all their might because if this resistance gives way, it will clear the path for a possible rally to $3,500 as there are no major resistances in between.
This bullish view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($1,780). The ETH/USDT pair may then tumble toward the 50-day SMA ($1,671).
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) broke and closed above the resistance of the range at $235 on Nov. 4, indicating that demand exceeds supply.
There is a minor resistance at $250 but if buyers bulldoze their way through, the BNB/USDT pair may reach the major hurdle at $265. This level may prove to be a formidable resistance for the bulls to cross.
On the downside, the first important support to keep an eye on is $235. If the price dips below this level, it will signal that bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then slide to the 20-day EMA ($227).
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) broke above the stiff overhead resistance of $0.67 on Nov. 6, indicating that the bulls are in the driver’s seat.
There is a minor resistance at $0.74 but if bulls clear this hurdle, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $0.85 and subsequently to $1.
A risk to the current up-move is that the RSI has entered overbought territory. This suggests that the rally is overheated in the short term. That could result in a correction or a consolidation for a few days. The important level to watch on the downside is $0.67. If this level gives way, it could start a deeper correction to the 20-day EMA ($0.58).
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) bounced off the crucial support of $38.79 on Nov. 3 but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels.
The bears will try to build upon their advantage and sink the price below $38.79. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could slump to the 20-day EMA ($34.67). This level is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to drive the price above $42.50 and challenge the stiff resistance at $48. Conversely, if the 20-day EMA cracks, the pair may tumble to $31 and later to $27.12.
Related: Why is XRP price up today?
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been in a strong recovery for the past few days. The momentum picked up further after buyers pushed the price above $0.30.
The strong rally has pushed the RSI into the overbought zone, suggesting that a minor consolidation or correction may be around the corner. If the price stays above $0.32, it will increase the likelihood of a rally to $0.38.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.32, it will suggest that traders may be booking profits. That could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA ($0.30). This remains the key level for the bulls to defend to keep the up-move intact.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the strong support at the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on Feb. 3, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
The bulls are trying to maintain the price above $0.07 and if they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and surge to $0.08. This level may pose a strong challenge but if cleared, the pair may sprint toward the psychological level of $0.10.
Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to stall the up-move and pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. This could clear the path for a potential fall to the $0.06 support.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) has been trading above the moving averages for the past few days, indicating demand at higher levels.
The bulls pushed the price above $2.31 on Nov. 6 but the long wick shows selling at higher levels. If buyers maintain the price above $2.31, it will open the doors for a rise to $2.59. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level, the moving averages are likely to act as the first line of support. If these give way, the TON/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $1.89. Such a move will suggest that the pair may oscillate between $1.89 and $2.31 for some time.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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