Price analysis 7/4: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB
The crypto markets have remained relatively stable over the weekend and on July 4, which is a holiday for the United States financial markets due to Independence Day. Although Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives platform BitMEX, was expecting a “mega crypto dump” around July 4, it has not materialized.
The drop in Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility in the past few days has resulted in the squeezing of the Bollinger Band’s width. This indicates a possible increase in volatility in the next few days, according to popular analyst Matthew Hyland.
Meanwhile, crypto investors seem to be waiting for clues from the U.S. equities markets and the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the dollar in the week ending July 3 slumped to 0.77 below zero, the lowest level in seventeen months. The majority of the analysts surveyed by JP Morgan expect the dollar to end at or below the current price levels of about 105. Any weakness in the dollar could be beneficial for Bitcoin.
Could bulls start a recovery in the short term? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
The failure of the bears to extend Bitcoin’s decline below $19,637 suggests a lack of sellers at lower levels. The bulls will now attempt to push the price back above the resistance at $19,637.
If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,255). This level could again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the pair may rise to the overhead zone between $22,000 and $23,362.
A break above this zone could open the doors for a possible rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($25,710). The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to signal a potential trend change.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains bearish and traders are selling on rallies. That could increase the possibility of a retest of the critical support at $17,622. If this support cracks, the decline could extend to $15,000.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) slipped below the psychological level at $1,000 on June 30 but the bears could not capitalize on this weakness. This suggests that bulls are buying on dips.
The bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,192) and gain the upper hand. If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $1,280 and then to the 50-day SMA ($1,535). This level could again act as a strong resistance. The bulls will have to propel the price above $1,700 to signal the start of a new up-move.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies. The bears will then try to sink the price below $998 and challenge the critical support at $881.
BNB/USDT
The buyers have successfully defended the support at $211 since June 29, indicating strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are presently attempting to push BNB above the 20-day EMA ($231).
If they succeed, it will suggest that the BNB/USDT pair may have bottomed out at $183. The buyers will then attempt to drive the pair to the 50-day SMA ($266). A break and close above this resistance could signal a potential change in trend.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on every minor rally. The bears will then again try to sink the price below $211 and gain the upper hand.
XRP/USDT
XRP has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The symmetrical triangle usually acts as a continuation pattern but on some occasions, it also behaves as a reversal pattern.
The price has rebounded off the support line of the triangle and the bulls will attempt to push the XRP/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.33). If they succeed, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the triangle.
A break and close above this level could suggest the start of a new up-move. The pair could then rally to $0.48.
Another possibility is that the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the support line of the triangle. That could pull the pair down to the critical support at $0.28. If this level cracks, the next stop could be $0.23.
ADA/USDT
Although Cardano (ADA) has been trading near the $0.44 level since June 30, the bears have not been able to pull and sustain the price below the support. This suggests that bulls are buying the dips toward $0.44.
The buyers are currently attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.48). If they accomplish this task, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.51). This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could suggest that the bears may be losing their grip.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The sellers will then try to sink the pair below $0.44 and challenge the critical level at $0.40.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA ($35) for the past few days but the bears have not been able to capitalize on this weakness. This suggests a lack of sellers at lower levels.
The buyers will now attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($40). A break and close above this resistance could open the doors for a possible rally to the psychological level at $50.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will then try to pull the pair below $30. If they do that, the pair could decline to $27 and then to $25.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls are buying the intraday dips as they expect a move higher.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure may be reducing. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) and challenge the immediate resistance at $0.08. If this level is crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.10.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bears are defending the moving averages with vigor. The sellers will then try to sink the pair below $0.06 and gain the upper hand.
Related: Hodlers and whales: Who owns the most Bitcoin in 2022?
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) has been trading between $7.30 and $6.36 since June 30. This suggests that bulls are buying at lower levels but the bears have not allowed the price to rise above the range.
Although the downsloping 20-day EMA ($7.52) indicates advantage to sellers, the positive divergence on the RSI indicates that the bearish momentum could be weakening. If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.63).
This bullish view could be invalidated if the price turns down and plummets below the crucial support at $6.36. If that happens, the pair could resume its downtrend toward the next support at $5.
LEO/USD
The bulls and the bears are battling it out for supremacy near the resistance line of the descending channel. UNUS SED LEO (LEO) dipped to the 20-day EMA ($5.65) on July 2 but the bulls successfully defended the level.
The buyers are again attempting to clear the resistance line of the channel. The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the price sustains above $6, the LEO/USD pair could pick up momentum and rally to $6.50. Above this level, the rally could extend to the pattern target at $6.90.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price once again turns down from $6, it will suggest that bears are aggressively defending this level. The bears will then attempt to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could slide to the 50-day SMA ($5.30).
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been trading close to the psychological level at $0.000010. This suggests that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low near this support.
The 20-day EMA ($0.000010) is flat and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If the price breaks above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010), the SHIB/USDT pair could rally to $0.000012. This level could again act as a stiff barrier but if cleared, the pair could rise to $0.000014.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will try to pull the pair below $0.000009. If they succeed, the pair could retest the critical support at $0.000007.
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